As Wake County population surges, WCPSS enrollment booms

September 16, 2005 - Students are pouring into the Wake County Public Schools at a rate never seen before. When the 2005-06 tenth day enrollment was reported Sept. 8, WCPSS had 6,425 more students than on the tenth day of 2004-05.

In the ten years between 1993 and 2002, WCPSS enrollment grew by 34,321. Just in the last three years, the number of students has grown by 16,120.

Each of the last three years has set a new record for increased student enrollment with 4,597 in 2003-04, 5,098 in 2004-05 and based on the tenth day enrollment, 6,425 in 2005-06.

Number of students added sets new record each year
2003-04
4,597
2004-05
5,098
2005-06
10th day
6,425

Wake County is number one
"Wake County is the fastest growing county in North Carolina, adding about 22,000 people annually. We also have the largest increase in the number of students joining a N.C. public school system annually," said Maja Vouk, WCPSS director for demographics. "By 2020, the county is expected to have more than 1.1 million people. Over 180,000 will be in our schools."

Wake County and its municipalities issued 6,865 residential building permits in the first seven months of this year. More than 2,600 permits were issued in Raleigh, 1,100 in Wake County, 700 in Cary, 400 in Wake Forest and 400 in Holly Springs.

Vouk said Wake County offers a pleasing climate, affordable homes and job opportunities. She said this is drawing immigrants from across the country - including the northeast US, as well as international immigrants.

Wake is becoming more affluent, more educated and older. Socio-economic trends for Wake County indicate household income, median house value, household size, median age and education level are up. The number of families below the poverty level is down.

Growth projections and the state
The dramatic increase in the number of new students entering WCPSS schools affects many different areas including the size of the budget, the need for additional classroom space, the location and construction of new schools, staffing levels, supplies, placement of mobile units and the assignment of students to schools.

There are three principal sources of projections: at the state level, at the county level and within WCPSS. They may differ in enrollment estimates, and different projections may be used for different purposes.

For example, the state projected that WCPSS would have 119,325 students this year and based its funding of WCPSS on this projection.

"We will work to serve the 1,000 additional students that arrived in our schools beyond these projections and will work to secure the additional resources required to do so," said Dr. Del Burns, WCPSS Deputy Superintendent.

Burns said WCPSS will seek additional funding from the state for the difference between the state projection and the actual number of students enrolled. Each school reports its enrollment on days 1, 5, 7, 10 and 20. The state reconciles its funding for school systems based on the enrollment of students on the 20th day of school which will be Sept. 22. The enrollment number will be reported to the state in mid-October.

Growth projections and the county
The county, which released its revised projections in February 2005, predicted that WCPSS will reach 118,041 students - an increase of more than 3,900 over last year's official 20th day number.

The county and the school system agreed to use the county's projections for long-term planning purposes, and together, have worked with consultants to help project student enrollment for the next school year, for the six planning areas and for 20 years out. These computer models are run at four different times in a year. Some of the data is built into the models, while other information is entered on a yearly basis.

Wake County Planning reports their projections as a low, medium and high range. The school system uses the county's upper projection for its capital planning (facilities) and the mid-point for operations (budget).

A number of WCPSS schools operate at or above their nominal capacity. The 2004-05 school building capacity is 100,059 students. To accommodate the difference between this and the current population of 120,379 students, WCPSS operates more than 900 mobile and modular classrooms.

Internal projections
Each year, Dr. Ramey Beavers, WCPSS senior director for the Office of Growth Management, computes enrollment projections to aid with staff allocations. While his projections are often close to the actual number of students, Dr. Beavers did something this year he had never done before. He projected the exact tenth-day total enrollment for WCPSS schools, 120,379.

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