Enrollment Distribution by Municipal Sub-Regions

 

In fall 2004, the Wake County Public School System (WCPSS) contracted with the Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OR/Ed. Lab) at the Institute for Transportation Research and Education at North Carolina State University to develop a Long-Range School Plan.

The purpose was to create an analytical, data-driven process that incorporates land use and future developments into determining the student growth by place of residence, and to determine optimal target areas for future school sites.

TheOR/Ed. Lab's model used the WCPSS countywide enrollment projections as a baseline, but the forecasted growth was broken down into smaller geographic areas (39 urban/non-urban service areas). These projections reflected the municipalities' data on land use plans and future developments.

Download Table (pdf 13KB) | Download Map (pdf 2,323KB, html) |Contacts | Home
Projected Student Population Distribution by Municipal Sub-Regions (using CIP Projection)
OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU, Centennial Campus - June 16, 2006
Actual
Projected
Urban Service Area
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
APEX
7,437
8,192
9,092
10,002
11,024
12,196
13,116
13,975
14,734
15,444
16,095
16,678
17,174
17,625
18,038
18,439
18,831
19,216
19,595
19,981
20,365
CARY -- CENTRAL
8,601
8,384
8,312
8,296
8,308
8,345
8,427
8,400
8,435
8,492
8,579
8,822
9,033
9,233
9,438
9,630
9,812
9,985
10,150
10,308
10,462
CARY -- MAYNARD LOOP
1,672
1,695
1,739
1,760
1,806
1,849
1,900
1,916
1,931
1,955
1,981
2,045
2,096
2,143
2,188
2,230
2,272
2,313
2,353
2,391
2,430
CARY -- NORTH
4,634
4,595
4,624
4,651
4,696
4,751
4,799
4,788
4,798
4,833
4,878
5,011
5,126
5,236
5,349
5,457
5,560
5,659
5,754
5,846
5,935
CARY -- NORTHWEST
598
1,515
2,231
2,749
3,170
3,510
3,650
3,732
3,841
3,979
4,131
4,161
4,195
4,244
4,260
4,300
4,365
4,445
4,534
4,632
4,732
CARY -- SOUTH
3,942
3,979
4,032
4,106
4,165
4,239
4,312
4,341
4,392
4,446
4,532
4,651
4,758
4,860
4,962
5,061
5,159
5,256
5,351
5,442
5,532
CARY -- SOUTHEAST
617
649
686
710
730
752
770
778
783
790
802
824
845
865
883
900
917
934
950
966
982
CARY -- SOUTHWEST
930
1,126
1,298
1,413
1,515
1,601
1,608
1,605
1,602
1,614
1,629
1,670
1,708
1,750
1,785
1,823
1,864
1,907
1,951
1,997
2,043
CARY -- TCAP
663
689
717
737
753
771
789
796
804
814
827
855
877
898
920
941
963
984
1,005
1,025
1,045
CARY -- Z
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
FUQUAY-VARINA
6,815
7,295
8,036
8,823
9,782
10,904
12,104
13,186
14,104
14,912
15,636
16,234
16,718
17,157
17,544
17,908
18,252
18,583
18,906
19,218
19,525
GARNER
8,087
8,490
9,174
9,907
10,810
11,895
13,108
14,185
15,117
15,948
16,723
17,586
18,322
19,017
19,669
20,315
20,954
21,591
22,229
22,863
23,494
HOLLY SPRINGS
3,897
4,502
5,107
5,660
6,247
6,892
7,193
7,474
7,745
8,009
8,290
8,571
8,825
9,072
9,304
9,542
9,786
10,032
10,281
10,537
10,792
KNIGHTDALE
3,663
3,891
4,219
4,564
5,001
5,531
6,240
6,899
7,490
8,046
8,590
9,084
9,537
9,989
10,433
10,890
11,354
11,829
12,312
12,800
13,290
MORRISVILLE
1,655
1,743
1,849
1,938
2,034
2,132
2,208
2,246
2,281
2,316
2,352
2,397
2,422
2,444
2,460
2,476
2,491
2,504
2,515
2,524
2,529
RALEIGH -- CENTRAL
2,098
2,153
2,238
2,286
2,300
2,340
2,384
2,395
2,421
2,459
2,508
2,594
2,667
2,737
2,809
2,883
2,956
3,029
3,101
3,172
3,241
RALEIGH -- EAST
1,720
1,686
1,681
1,680
1,667
1,677
1,701
1,704
1,716
1,731
1,752
1,807
1,853
1,898
1,945
1,992
2,038
2,082
2,125
2,166
2,206
RALEIGH -- NORTH
9,591
9,695
9,961
10,169
10,429
10,708
10,847
10,852
10,912
11,025
11,176
11,501
11,790
12,071
12,338
12,603
12,866
13,125
13,382
13,633
13,879
RALEIGH -- NORTH HILLS
3,232
3,166
3,174
3,209
3,267
3,322
3,393
3,411
3,436
3,471
3,510
3,623
3,716
3,806
3,896
3,986
4,072
4,155
4,236
4,314
4,390
RALEIGH -- NORTHEAST
11,761
12,289
12,830
13,212
13,549
13,919
13,988
13,920
13,978
14,138
14,370
14,740
15,086
15,437
15,784
16,144
16,511
16,881
17,250
17,618
17,981
RALEIGH -- NORTHWEST
5,823
5,965
6,199
6,399
6,617
6,807
6,939
6,982
7,047
7,127
7,227
7,438
7,617
7,783
7,936
8,087
8,234
8,379
8,521
8,658
8,791
RALEIGH -- SOUTHEAST
7,076
7,111
7,242
7,293
7,376
7,517
7,621
7,657
7,743
7,873
8,031
8,254
8,452
8,649
8,845
9,046
9,248
9,449
9,649
9,846
10,039
RALEIGH -- SOUTHWEST
4,051
4,625
5,170
5,560
5,881
6,172
6,414
6,535
6,666
6,807
6,962
7,188
7,386
7,577
7,757
7,941
8,128
8,319
8,510
8,700
8,886
RALEIGH -- UMSTEAD
1,976
2,181
2,373
2,539
2,679
2,805
2,912
2,973
3,046
3,133
3,230
3,315
3,388
3,465
3,538
3,616
3,696
3,779
3,864
3,948
4,031
RALEIGH -- UNIVERSITY
1,412
1,609
1,802
1,961
2,112
2,229
2,329
2,378
2,422
2,463
2,502
2,582
2,645
2,702
2,753
2,801
2,850
2,898
2,945
2,991
3,035
RALEIGH -- X
167
368
524
635
728
806
859
898
943
996
1,054
1,056
1,060
1,070
1,078
1,090
1,106
1,125
1,147
1,169
1,192
RALEIGH -- Y
435
1,074
1,578
1,954
2,253
2,493
2,603
2,674
2,754
2,848
2,956
3,038
3,119
3,206
3,282
3,363
3,455
3,555
3,661
3,771
3,882
RALEIGH -- Z
488
706
886
1,014
1,123
1,211
1,270
1,306
1,347
1,394
1,447
1,505
1,558
1,614
1,665
1,718
1,775
1,835
1,897
1,960
2,023
ROLESVILLE
741
784
888
1,034
1,235
1,483
1,774
2,059
2,292
2,496
2,679
2,817
2,936
3,050
3,158
3,267
3,376
3,486
3,597
3,708
3,820
WAKE COUNTY 1
5,753
5,667
5,733
5,823
6,000
6,285
6,613
6,898
7,174
7,445
7,705
8,074
8,413
8,746
9,066
9,378
9,686
9,990
10,293
10,594
10,894
WAKE COUNTY 2
1,165
1,420
1,649
1,838
2,030
2,216
2,425
2,608
2,779
2,955
3,127
3,360
3,578
3,800
4,010
4,222
4,442
4,668
4,898
5,131
5,367
WAKE COUNTY 3
158
192
238
274
314
358
404
446
483
520
555
574
590
607
621
636
652
668
684
701
718
WAKE COUNTY 4
142
154
166
181
194
207
221
236
246
258
270
286
301
316
331
345
359
374
389
403
418
WAKE COUNTY 5
1,442
1,406
1,394
1,403
1,437
1,488
1,557
1,618
1,667
1,717
1,766
1,848
1,919
1,986
2,053
2,115
2,175
2,233
2,290
2,346
2,401
WAKE COUNTY 6
57
65
71
77
84
90
98
106
113
120
126
136
145
152
160
169
177
186
195
204
213
WAKE FOREST
4,238
4,557
4,939
5,270
5,618
6,014
6,293
6,525
6,751
6,991
7,244
7,528
7,779
8,024
8,264
8,510
8,758
9,009
9,261
9,514
9,765
WENDELL
2,087
2,367
2,688
3,020
3,400
3,835
4,138
4,430
4,690
4,935
5,174
5,368
5,539
5,707
5,865
6,027
6,191
6,356
6,523
6,691
6,857
ZEBULON
1,443
1,523
1,759
2,079
2,503
3,019
3,601
4,155
4,581
4,926
5,220
5,546
5,808
6,046
6,260
6,469
6,673
6,876
7,078
7,279
7,477
TOTAL
120,272
127,513
136,303
144,228
152,837
162,371
170,611
177,089
183,265
189,429
195,639
202,769
208,985
214,985
220,650
226,325
232,007
237,698
243,383
249,050
254,665

MAP -Distribution Regions

Site Contact: , AICP; Director, Demographics