Overview
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Wake County Public
School System
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Highlights
• The Plan establishes a data network between Wake
County, WCPSS, municipal planners and the OR/Ed. Lab that will be used to
track and forecast residential growth patterns.
• The Plan establishes the creation of the Student Population Distribution
Model which utilizes approved twenty-year county-wide student population
forecasts and distributes the forecasted population to municipal areas.
• The Plan will provide municipal-level student population forecasts
that are directly tied to county and municipal planning data.
• The Plan will apply Operations Research techniques to the output
of the Student Population Distribution Model to determine optimal target
areas for new school sites.
• The Plan allows planners and WCPSS to update the database with new
Land Use data and student data.
From fall 2004 through the summer of 2005, the OR/Ed. Lab
and WCPSS examined current school planning methodologies used by WCPSS.
Concurrently, the OR/Ed. Lab interviewed many planning departments in Wake
County in order to understand the current environment surrounding the planning
for future school sites and the resulting allocation of land. Based on these
observations and other valuable feedback from the planning community and
WCPSS staff, the OR/Ed. Lab proposed a framework (ppt
504KB)
for a data-driven comprehensive school building plan.
Project Phases:
Phase I – Construction of Planning Region Database and Residential Land Use Profiles.
• Wake County was divided into nearly 6,000 Planning
Regions (ppt
1,4 MB), constructed by aggregating land parcels having a homogeneous
student generation potential. The Planning Regions also preserve existing
WCPSS node boundaries as much as possible.
• The Lab created residential Profiles based on existing residential
densities. These Profiles would allow planners to classify current and projected
development and allow the OR/Ed. Lab to classify student generation potential.
• Each of the 13 planning agencies within Wake County was interviewed
during the spring and summer of 2005 to provide feedback on the residential
Profiles as well as provide residential plans land use data useful in the
formation of Planning Regions.
• At the request of planners, the OR /Ed. Lab combined their efforts
with the on-going CAMPO's socio-economic data collection process. The resulting
collaboration would allow CAMPO, WCPSS, and the Wake County planning community
to benefit from a common database of valuable planning information.
Phase II – Comprehensive Land Use Study and Creation of Student Population Distribution Model
• Each of the 13 planning departments in Wake County
completed an exhaustive parcel-level future Land Use classification and
a Planning Region resolution forecast of future residential development.
Municipal planning departments were assigned areas defined by their long-range
Urban Service Areas, with the non-urban areas assigned to Wake County Planning
(Map).
• From their experience assisting school districts throughout North
Carolina, the OR/Ed. Lab adapted successful forecasting and allocation methodologies
to accommodate the scope and complexities of the WCPSS Long-Range
School Plan. The result is the Student Population Distribution Model,
(Report
59KB), and Student Population Projections by Municipal Sub-Regions,
(Table) which distributes the approved
Wake County Planning Student Projection forecasts to municipality-level
(and even node-level) resolution.
Phase III – Location of Optimal Target Areas for New School Sites
• Using the distributed student population projections,
the OR/Ed. Lab used Operations Research techniques to determine optimal
target areas for future school sites. The results were shared with the WCPSS
Board of Education on October 3, 2006. A presentation that re-capped the
process for generating data that projects capacity needs at each of the
three school levels (elementary, middle, high) by 2012 was shared. Maps
with identified sites and future target areas for new schools were included
(see presentation
1.0 MB), |Table|,
|Maps|, |Report|.
OR/Ed. Lab's data generates long-range growth plans through 2025 that will
be updated on a regular basis as new information is provided.
Site
Contact:
, AICP; Director, Demographics