Wake Schools Enrollment to Reach 160,000 by 2020
Jan. 10, 2002--New enrollment projections show Wake County schools gaining 60,000 students by 2020. The Wake County Planning Department projects the school system's enrollment will increase from 101,397 students to over 131,000 in 2010 and to more than 160,000 in 2020.
Doug Longhini, the county's interim planning director, said WCPSS will continue to add at least 3,000 new students each year. "Growth rates will increase more at the middle and high school levels than at the elementary due to lower fertility rates and families with older children moving to the area," said Longhini.
The figures incorporate a new projection model, 2000 Census data and other trends. Projections are now based on where students live; in the past, the numbers were an average of where students live and where they go to school.
Based on these projections, at the end of the PLAN 2000 building program (2004), 95.1% of students in central/northern Wake will be in permanent (not mobile) seats; 85.6% of students in southwestern Wake will be in permanent seats; and 97.7% of students in southeastern Wake will be in permanent classroom seats. The numbers point to the need for a new high school in southwestern Wake - an area slated to increase by 20,000 students in 10 years.
In the past, enrollment projections have been extremely close to the actual enrollment numbers. For example, the Jan. 2001 projections for 2001/2002 school year differs from the actual 20th day enrollment numbers by only 0.08%.
These new projections come as WCPSS wraps up $617.7 million worth of school construction with Phase IIIB, IIIB+ and State Bond funds. The funding covered 131 projects between 1997 and 2002, and all but three projects are completed.
In addition, almost half of the PLAN 2000 projects for the period 2000 - 2004 are already underway. WCPSS has 29% of the PLAN 2000 projects in design, 18% under construction, 1% complete, and 52% not started. Voters approved $500 million in bonds and $50 million in pay-as-you-go funds to finance 14 new schools, 32 major renovations and 64 minor improvement projects in Nov. 2000. The county issued $150 million of bonds last January and will issue another $180 million in February.
To prepare for the future growth, WCPSS has started planning for a November 2003 bond referendum. Facilities will review school needs with stakeholders in August. In November, needs will be presented to the board of education and the board of county commissioners, and the building program scope will be presented to both boards in March 2003.
Actual and Projected Total Enrollment: Wake County, 1985 - 2020 (Informed Decisions, Inc.)
| Year | Total | Annual Growth | Yearly Increase |
| 1985-86 | 57,268 | ||
| 1986-87 | 58,211 | 1.65% | 943 |
| 1987-88 | 59,687 | 2.54% | 1,476 |
| 1988-89 | 60,932 | 2.09% | 1,245 |
| 1989-90 | 62,462 | 2.51% | 1,530 |
| 1990-91 | 64,243 | 2.85% | 1,781 |
| 1991-92 | 66,915 | 4.16% | 2,672 |
| 1992-93 | 70,052 | 4.69% | 3,137 |
| 1993-94 | 73,192 | 4.48% | 3,140 |
| 1994-95 | 76,731 | 4.84% | 3,539 |
| 1995-96 | 81,203 | 5.83% | 4,472 |
| 1996-97 | 84,932 | 4.59% | 3,729 |
| 1997-98 | 89,423 | 5.29% | 4,491 |
| 1998-99 | 91,411 | 2.22% | 1,988 |
| 1999-00 | 94,782 | 3.69% | 3,371 |
| 2000-01 | 97,719 | 3.10% | 2,937 |
| 2001-02 | 101,313 | 3.68% | 3,594 |
| 2002-03 | 105,437 | 4.07% | 4,124 |
| 2003-04 | 109,178 | 3.55% | 3,740 |
| 2004-05 | 112,380 | 2.93% | 3,202 |
| 2005-06 | 115,304 | 2.60% | 2,924 |
| 2006-07 | 118,439 | 2.72% | 3,136 |
| 2007-08 | 121,866 | 2.89% | 3,426 |
| 2008-09 | 124,973 | 2.55% | 3,108 |
| 2009-10 | 127,860 | 2.31% | 2,887 |
| 2010-11 | 130,765 | 2.27% | 2,905 |
| 2011-12 | 133,820 | 2.34% | 3,054 |
| 2012-13 | 136,893 | 2.30% | 3,073 |
| 2013-14 | 140,134 | 2.37% | 3,241 |
| 2014-15 | 143,526 | 2.42% | 3,392 |
| 2015-16 | 147,048 | 2.45% | 3,522 |
| 2016-17 | 150,412 | 2.29% | 3,364 |
| 2017-18 | 153,646 | 2.15% | 3,234 |
| 2018-19 | 156,863 | 2.09% | 3,218 |
| 2019-20 | 159,304 | 1.56% | 2,441 |
| 2020-21 | 161,813 | 1.57% | 2,509 |