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Holdzkom: How to Understand Graduation Rates
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David Holdzkom, assistant superintendent for evaluation and research, recently wrote the following column about what graduation rates mean and how they reflect -- and sometimes don't reflect -- students' experiences.
In my work with the Wake County Public School System as assistant superintendent for evaluation and research, I have the opportunity to work with pretty large data sets. After all, we have more than 128,000 students! But with all the confusion about how we calculate drop-out rates, non-promotion rates, and high school graduation rates and how these various numbers interact, I thought it might be more understandable if we looked at a smaller data set.
Let's assume that there are only five students in the freshman class that entered high school in 2002-03. We'll call them Alex, Beth, Carl, Dona, and Elvis. Let's further assume that they all take a normal freshman class load at a 4x4 block-schedule school. (Remember that on the block schedule, a student takes four one-credit classes each semester.) All freshman students must take English 1 and accumulate a fixed number of credits in order to be classified as a sophomore at the end of the year. Well, each of our students gets the right number of credits, but Beth and Alex fail English 1. Therefore, at the end of the first year, our promotion rate is 60 percent. Alex, however, takes English 1 (which he passes) during summer school. Moreover, Beth takes English 1 over at the beginning of the second year. She is successful and is re-classified as a sophomore at the beginning of the second semester. So, all our students are back on track.
Well, not all. Elvis decided during the summer to go to Hollywood to be on American Idol. So, he's classified as a drop-out because he wasn't in school at the end of the first month of the school year. So, 80 percent of our 5 students are on track at the beginning of the second semester. Elvis, by the way, got booed off American Idol, so he's now back in school, but he's lost a semester worth of credits. He's in the sophomore class, but he's not on track to graduate on time -- not enough credits.
Everything goes along smoothly, except that in April, Elvis decides to try his luck in Hollywood again. He gets a job and is earning a living (barely), but he's following his dream. He will now be counted in the not-promoted calculation at the end of the sophomore year. But everyone else does okay, earns enough credits (including English 2) and is promoted to the junior class. At the beginning of the next school year, Elvis is again counted as a drop-out, but everyone else is doing fine. Except for Dona.
In the summer between the junior and senior year, Dona decided to get a job. She loves earning money, so she decides to drop out and get a GED certificate at the local community college. She (and Elvis) will be counted as drop-outs in the annual student accounting process. She will eventually earn her GED, but she will always be counted as a drop-out from a public school. Alex, Beth, and Carl all continue to earn enough credits and graduate from high school on time. Elvis will eventually see the error of his ways, come back to school, take extra work during summer school and will graduate one year behind his buddies. He'll be counted in the five-year graduation rate, although he's already been counted as dropping out twice. Dona is counted as a drop-out, even though she finished her GED with flying colors, was admitted to Selective University and now is in medical school. Dona and Elvis are technically missing in action, so the graduation rate for our group is 60 percent.
From this fable, it should be clear that a student can be non-promoted (and reported as such) but still catch up, may drop out more than once (and be counted as a drop-out each time), and may drop out to pursue other educational opportunities. The on-time graduation rate is not just 100 percent of ninth graders minus all the twelfth graders four years later. The moral? A student can drop out many times, but can graduate only once.
While small data sets can be used to reduce complexity and make the effects of public policy clear, it is always helpful to remember that each number represents a person with unique circumstances, issues, and opportunities. When we look at something like the on-time graduation rate (a forest), we don't want to lose sight of the students (the trees).
Posted by Chip Sudderth at 03:54 PM on April 12, 2007 | Leave Feedback
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